The Western media has worked itself into a pro-democracy frenzy with respect to the Middle East and North Africa, though I note that it keeps its many mouths firmly shut about the People’s Republic of China, which is currently little better than the rest with regard to civil and economic rights, and which was by far the worst in the history of mankind during the rule of Chairman Mao (some 30 million souls murdered as compared with 1,000 or so in Libya so far).
Unfortunately, the media is pretty much ignorant about the wide range of so-called ‘democracies’ that might arise half-formed out of the Middle Eastern sand. Some of these promise to be worse than the autocracies that they are pulling down. Widespread genocide is predictable as Shi’ites confront Sunnis, as the better-off confront those who are impoverished, and as the literate confront the illiterate, all armed to the teeth in pursuit of the black gold that drives their passions. The end-game may well produce tyrannies that match those of Stalin’s USSR, Hitler’s Germany and Mao’s China, rather than the Scandinavian social democracies that the Western media so eagerly praise.
The media, unfortunately, is not well-educated in such institutional niceties as the rule of law, and civil society, or in the nature of the inalienable rights to life and liberty and the imprescriptible right to property that form the basis of the United States’ Constitution. Given the ignorance of the media in 2000, when Al Gore was lionized for losing a presidential election while winning the popular vote, I am not sure that most of the U.S. media is even aware about the nature of the United States Constitution.
Blood and Oil! That is the predictable tragedy of the crude forces now being witlessly unleashed across the Middle East. If the world escapes Armageddon, it will indeed be fortunate. If the West meddles in the region – and its leaders are straining at the leash so to do, not least because of the lure of Black Gold - then Armageddon pretty much is inevitable. At least, the media will glorify itself in its own self- destruction as it records the unfolding events for a desolate ether.
Tags: Armageddon beckons, unknown forces unleashed by media interventions
February 28, 2011 at 10:34 pm |
Your writing here appears to echo some points from Amy Chua’s “World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability.” Bryan Caplan just wrote a take-down of Chua’s thinking. I was wondering what your opinion of his criticism might be.
Also, is there any way for westerners to inspire the emergence of Lockean constitutionalism in dissatisfied and rebellious non-western populations (if we can’t or shouldn’t inspire democracy)?
February 28, 2011 at 10:40 pm |
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2011/02/reflections_on_6.html is Caplan’s recent post.
March 1, 2011 at 12:26 am |
Peter:
The problem that I identify is not how a democracy might behave when well-rooted constitutionally. Surely the median voter will be less likely to pursue genocide than would an unhinged autocrat. The problem is what might occur in a Hobbesian environment when Leviathan is suddenly removed? Well we have some idea. Iraq and Somalia are recent examples, the former even when an admittedly weak Leviathan supposedly was guiding the country to democracy, the latter where a failed state allows warlords tro range freely across the land.
Not every country in Arabia will manifest Hobbesian characteristics, Egypt may prove to be an exception. But I would not bet on Libya, or on Syria, or even on Bahrain or Kuwait if Iran’s filthy fingers provoked a Shia uprising, or if al Qaeda played games as it did in Iraq.
My expectation is that the collapse of autocracy will result in blood-baths followed by even worse autocracies. And that indigenous populations will overflow with hatred for the West because their meddling is deemed to be the root cause of the adverse regime change.
I am not arguing that autocracy should be enforced by outsider nations. I am simply suggesting that outsiders would be wise to allow sovereign countries to take care of their own destinies without outside meddling and without exhortation by uneducated media wolves.
March 1, 2011 at 10:56 am |
Charles, Iran could be behind the Egyptian uprising. However, there is absolutely no sign of involvement of Iran in Libya.
I have been following this very closely (when I have not been following the earthquake in Christchurch).
The Libyan uprising is nothing to do with oil!! It has everything to do with the brutal repression of the people.
My guess is that 1000 deaths in Libya is an underestimation of the numbers killed.
On top of that there have been many people who have disappeared over the years in Libya. The chickens are coming home to roost.
I agree though, that we need to keep an eye on China. I have already noted that the Chinese have been attempting to protest but their efforts have been tamped down via the usual means.
The human rights abuses in China must not be overlooked. Neither should the human rights abuses in Iran and Libya be overlooked. Likewise, under Muburak there were lots of human rights abuses, and there were plenty of people who were arrested and then disappeared who were not involved with MB but were bloggers. (I doubt that the numbers were anything like China).
I agree with you about what could happen with the collapse of some of these totalitarian autocracies especially in Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Yemen, Algeria and Morocco. I believe that Egypt could end up with a civil war (due to the outside influence of George Soros). However, I do not see the same with Libya. In this case the protesters seem to be independent of those outside influences. At least in Benghazi there is evidence that they do not want outsiders to intervene. The situation could get very bloody in Tripoli, but that might depend upon those same military forces: will they shoot their own people, or will they defect.
The difference in Libya seems to be the military and the police where there have been defections against Gadhafi. They have given the civilians a helping hand, and the military equipment. The people are very poorly armed and they are relying upon very old weaponry. Even the storming of the fort at Benghazi was a bit of a hoot. They used rocks, Molotov cocktails (gunpowder in tins that they use to fish) and their fishing harpoons. I am not joking. Another group used their grandfathers’ scimitars and weapons from the first world war!!
In Egypt on the other hand there was a lot of outside influence. For example the use of Facebook and Google to actually plan the protests. On top of that there is evidence of some very left wing American groups being involved in some way, as well as the likelihood that George Soros has been funding the revolutionary ferment.
Again in Libya there are no real signs of returning imams or anything like that, yet there are signs of this nature in Bahrain, as well as in Egypt, indicating to me that the Libyan situation is simply not the same as these other ME countries.
Rather than oil being a cause, I see that MB is a major factor in the protests. Behind the MB facade there is Iran. To this I would point out the downfall of the Govt in Lebanon and the fact that Lebanon has fallen into the hands of Hezbollah, which is financed by Iran via Syria. The imam in this case is Nasrallah.
March 1, 2011 at 7:22 pm |
Charles to follow up on my thoughts regarding this subject. This is what I do think is happening. George Soros has been funding groups in Egypt and a few other M.E. states in order to foment revolution. It is a case of following the money. Individuals such as Medea Benjamin of Code Pink, as well as William Ayers and Bernadine Dorhn have been in Egypt meeting with people behind the public uprising. They were not necessarily associated with El Baradei (mr Potato Head).
El Baradei who tried to take a front seat during the protests is a puppet of Iran. He is the person who headed up the Nuclear Power Commission (not sure of correct name) within the UN and allowed Iran to build the nuclear reactors whilst obsfucating within the U.N. and claiming that it was not happening. In the meantime Iran began building nuclear weapons. Also El Baradei is married to an Iranian woman. That is a weak link except it depends upon the position of her father.
This is why I believe that Iran is up to something in Egypt. Then there is the Muslim Brotherhood. My understanding is that MB is made up of Shia but not certain on that subject. It could be that MB is mixed. The MB pretended to not be interested in power. They were putting out the “we are peaceful” meme. However, it is not true. MB have been demanding the tearing up of the Egypt-Israel treaty. Just one more clue about the situation and that is the head of the army is named Tawatanti (sp) which is the same name as the late imam who gave some very revolutionary advice. It does not bode well for the Egyptian Coptic population.
I would suggest that George Soros is behind the risings in Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and a few other places. It is part of his agenda to have governments following his orders and for him to determine their constitution in some way. It is like an invisible hand, but the money is there. Also, look to the use of the phrase: “day of rage”. It keeps popping up.
Only in Libya is there a real difference. The people there are not in the pay of Soros, neither are they motivated to support Al Qaida. Their motivation is to get rid of the dictator. We shall just have to see what happens next in Libya. I would not expect to see them become the friend of the West in the near future, but the country might be neutralized for a while. I am simply not sure.
If Egypt falls to the MB then we are all in trouble because they gain control over the Suez Canal.